It seems as though Oxford researchers are key contributors are key to improving predictions of future global pandemics. Photo credit: Fusion Medical Animation via Unsplash
Following the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recently updated its list of high-threat pathogens, marking the first significant revision since 2018. This update has drawn global attention, as it is a result of an exhaustive process of pathogen prioritisation involving over 200 scientists from more than 50 countries, including several Oxford researchers. These experts assessed 1,652 viral and bacterial species, ultimately identifying those with the greatest potential to cause pandemics.
The process rigorously evaluated pathogens based on their transmissibility, and the availability of vaccines or treatments. This updated priority pathogen list includes 30 pathogens, with several new additions. Among these is the mpox virus (previously known as monkeypox), recently declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the WHO. The declaration was partly based on the surge of a new variant in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and its appearance in nearby Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda – four countries that had not previously reported mpox cases. Other notable pathogens include influenza A viruses that have triggered recent animal outbreaks, and coronaviruses which remain a persistent threat following the 2020 pandemic.
This approach enhances the reach and effectiveness of global preparedness efforts.
This iteration of the list also strategically expands its scope by including broader families of viruses, such as Sarbecovirus and Merbecovirus, to encompass pathogens with similar characteristics. This approach enhances the reach and effectiveness of global preparedness efforts. Alongside viruses such as MERS, SARS, Ebola virus (EBOV), Marburg virus (MARV), Zika virus (ZIKV), and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) that were highlighted in previous lists, the current list also features Henipavirus and Bandavirus dabieense, which constitute emerging threats in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. Newly added bacterial pathogens include Vibrio cholerae serogroup 0139, responsible for cholera, Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, Shigella dysenteriae serotype 1, and several non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica serovars.
Dr Amanda Rojek, a Senior Clinical Research Fellow at the Pandemic Sciences Institute at the University of Oxford who was directly involved in updating the list, shared her perspectives on its significance with The Oxford Scientist. When asked how the global health community should prepare to address these threats effectively, Dr Rojek emphasised the need for a multi-pronged approach, ‘We learned so much during the COVID pandemic, and it’s imperative that we maintain momentum to protect us from future pandemics. This needs to include governments, non-governmental organisations, and private industry. Importantly, and as reflected in this new priority list – this must have equity at the forefront’.
Dr Rojek emphasised the need for a multi-pronged approach
The emphasis on equity is a crucial component of this strategy. Dr. Rojek noted that vulnerability in one region affects the entire globe, highlighting the need to ensure that all countries benefit from preparedness efforts. Regarding the potential impact of the updated list on policy changes and innovations, Dr Rojek was optimistic, ‘The WHO R&D Blueprint has been undertaking prioritisation activities for a number of years now, and these have been formative in enabling research and development to be focused on priority risks, fostering collaboration and innovation across the globe’.
Vulnerability in one region affects the entire globe…
One of the most significant developments in this iteration of the list is the increased focus on the “unknown unknowns”, or what is commonly referred to as “Pathogen X” – an unexpected or unknown pathogen that could cause an outbreak. Dr Rojek pointed out that recent outbreaks of Zika and the emergence of a new strain of mpox underscore the unpredictability of these threats. She stressed the importance of advancing treatments and vaccine platforms for both known and unexpected pathogens.
…recent outbreaks of Zika and the emergence of a new strain of mpox underscore the unpredictability of these threats.
This updated list serves as a strategic blueprint guiding global health efforts, informing international health policies and directing funding towards the development of vaccines, treatments, and diagnostics. This targeted approach is especially essential for resource-limited countries, where strategic planning and international aid can significantly improve health outcomes.
Additionally, the WHO has introduced a separate list of “prototype pathogens”, which serve as models for basic science research and the development of medical countermeasures. These pathogens are chosen not for their current threat level, but for their potential to provide insights applicable to a broader category of related diseases. By focusing on these prototypes, the initiative aims to enhance global preparedness: encouraging research on lesser-known pathogens and expanding the tools available to respond to emerging threats. This strategy also helps direct funding and attention toward areas that might otherwise be neglected.
As global conditions continue to change – driven by factors like climate change, deforestation, and increased international travel – the threat of pandemics remains ever-present. The WHO’s updated priority pathogen list is an essential tool in the global strategy to mitigate these risks. By concentrating on these identified pathogens, the international community is better positioned to prevent future crises, safeguarding public health against the invisible threats that could define the next global health emergency.
